Former labor minister Jeannette Jara and former lawmaker José Antonio Kast were the top two vote getters in the first round of Chile’s presidential election on Sunday, with Jara receiving 27 percent of the vote and Kast receiving 24 percent, according to data from Chile’s Electoral Service. Jara and Kast, two candidates on opposite sides of the ideological spectrum, now advance to a runoff vote scheduled for Dec. 14. What do the first-round election results say about the priorities of Chilean voters? Which presidential candidate is best positioned to win next month’s runoff election? To what extent is the region undergoing a noticeable shift to the right, and what accounts for the shifting voter sentiments?
Dorotea López Giral, director of the Institute of International Studies at the University of Chile: “The results of the first round confirm that Chilean voters prioritized a discourse centered on law and order, immigration control and economic growth, issues that have dominated the media and political agenda in recent months. Although Jara managed to lead the first round, the electoral arithmetic ahead of the runoff appears unfavorable. The dispersion of votes in the first round benefits Kast, as most of the votes for eliminated candidates came from right-wing or center-right options. To reverse this trend, Jara would need to broaden her base beyond the traditional progressive electorate, appealing to moderate, undecided and pragmatic center-oriented voters, while also mobilizing her core supporters with greater intensity. This shift in the electoral scenario reflects an erosion of traditional political elites and the ruling coalition, which are perceived as unable to address new demands for security and social well-being. In this vacuum, new leaders have emerged who capitalize on public frustration through a narrative of rupture and renewal. This is not merely an ideological shift to the right, but rather a reconfiguration of political language. A detailed analysis of the parliamentary elections will be essential, as the composition of Congress will determine the limits of the next government’s governability. Although the right-leaning parties secured close to a majority in both chambers, the weakness of the party structures reveals a fragmented and negotiation-driven legislative landscape. Furthermore, the reinstatement of compulsory voting warrants deeper examination, as it has reintroduced segments of the population previously disengaged from electoral politics. The results of the presidential and parliamentary elections point to a new political cycle.”
Robert Munks, head of Americas Global Risk Insight at Verisk Maplecroft: “Endorsed by losing candidates Johannes Kaiser and Evelyn Matthei, and with a clear majority of the electorate opting for right-of-center presidential candidates, José Antonio Kast’s momentum in the second round is further boosted by figures showing the electorate’s expectation that he will win. And although an unexpectedly strong showing for Franco Parisi and the collapse of Matthei’s vote underlined that polling (again) wasn’t among the election night winners, the math is decidedly against Jara—even as Parisi’s unclear vote transfer gives him powerbroking options. Right-wing parties’ new majorities in both chambers of Congress further brought home how their campaigning resonated strongly with voters’ priorities: chiefly crime and immigration, but also the tightened budgetary space that any victor will inherit as confidence in the credibility of the fiscal rule has wobbled. Issues of public security will similarly loom large in the elections in Colombia and Peru in 2026, where right-wing forces are also politically ascendant. This underlines how the left—and an increasingly squeezed center—are on the back foot across the region. With voters energized by growing insecurity and the cost of living, the rightward regional tilt appears set to continue. And in Chile, where a putative Kast presidency could enjoy reduced legislative obstacles to reforms despite needing other parties to achieve quorum in the Senate, the viability of populist solutions will be visibly put to the test. Expect in both Chile and further afield a reinvigorated ‘mano dura,’ social conservatism, budget cuts and yet more hands of friendship reaching out to Washington.”
Anna Kowalczyk, director of the political science program at the Universidad Central de Chile in Santiago: “The first round of Chile’s presidential elections has revealed a striking tilt to the far right. Three candidates from that camp together secured nearly half of all votes, all running on platforms centered on immigration and public security. Despite differences in personality and style, they share a common lineage: All come from a party founded by a key advisor to Augusto Pinochet and maintain personal ties to the dictatorship. Evelyn Matthei is the daughter of a former junta member, and José Antonio Kast is the brother of a prominent ‘Chicago Boy,’ and both voted for the dictator in the 1988 plebiscite; Johannes Kaiser’s campaign has been marked by symbols associated with the regime. The strong showing of the extreme right, combined with the weaker-than-expected performance of Jeannette Jara, candidate of a broad center-left and left coalition, makes it difficult to imagine her securing an absolute majority in the December runoff. The electoral map emerging from the first round is one in which the traditional center is squeezed, and the contest now turns on how far to the right Chilean voters are willing to go. It is also misleading to speak simply of ‘shifting voter preferences.’ These elections have been held under new rules and with an expanded electorate. For the first time in Chile’s history, voting is compulsory for all eligible citizens, and turnout has risen from around seven million voters in 2021 to nearly 13 million this year. If Kast does win, it would mark an unprecedented shift to the right in post-authoritarian Chile—and in South America more generally. Since the return to democracy in 1990, the country has not had a government so firmly rooted in the hard-right tradition. A Kast presidency would not be just another alternation in power, but a qualitative break in Chile’s political trajectory.”
Mário Braga, Latin America analyst at RANE Network: “With right-wing candidates receiving 70 percent of the vote, Chile’s first-round presidential election results confirm broad popular discontent with President Gabriel Boric and Chileans’ frustration with growing insecurity and illegal migration. Against that backdrop and amid heightened polarization, Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara is unlikely to successfully distance herself from the current poorly approved government, meaning far-right José Antonio Kast will highly likely win the Dec. 14 runoff. Not only has he leveraged fears over crime and migration, but his promised tougher approach on these matters has resonated among an electorate that strongly approves of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. (A November poll showed that 71 percent of Chileans have a positive assessment of the Salvadoran leader.) Chile’s voters’ preference for a platform that includes states of exception to fight organized crime, the construction of maximum-security prisons, tougher sentences and mass deportations show a fatigue with more gradualist measures, especially the left’s traditional preference to focus on the socioeconomic root causes of criminality rather than fighting gangs with public security forces’ firepower. Similar discontent is also likely to influence the upcoming presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil in 2026 and underline the extent to which security has toppled corruption, economic and other concerns among voters. As organized criminal groups become increasingly sophisticated, expand their geographic footprint and fuel robberies, extortion and other violent crimes, governments in Latin America will face growing pressure to effectively curb the impacts of these groups in voters’ daily lives, or risk losing upcoming votes to populist platforms that may prove unfeasible to be implemented but that gather enough popular support to become electorally competitive. While harsh crackdowns may reduce crime levels in the short term, they risk triggering gangs’ backlash; Bukele’s model is unlikely to succeed in other countries with distinct geographic, political and security landscapes.”
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