Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez has faced criticism by some people who served under her predecessors, Nicolás Maduro and the late Hugo Chávez, the Associated Press reported June 1. Among the moves that have drawn objections were her decision to allow the extradition to the United States of Maduro ally Alex Saab and her authorizing a training mission in which two U.S. Marine Osprey aircraft landed at the U.S. Embassy in Caracas. How strong is Rodríguez’s hold on power in Venezuela, and to what extent is her support in Venezuela’s socialist party cracking? How well is she balancing demands within Venezuela versus those of the United States? How much support does she have within Venezuela’s military and among the country’s economic elites?
Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue: “From the outset, it was clear that the tutelary arrangement set up after Jan. 3 between the Trump administration and Delcy Rodríguez would have its weak points and vulnerabilities. To be sure, Rodríguez has proven to be more skillful than many observers expected in consolidating her position as Venezuela’s acting president. She has managed to purge Maduro loyalists and balance multiple and diverse domestic pressures and constituencies with demands from Washington. Rodríguez has largely placated the White House by taking steps to stabilize the country’s economy by opening up the petroleum sector to U.S. business interests and foreign investment. U.S. pressure has also resulted in the release of about half of Venezuela’s political prisoners and a gradual opening of civic space. Yet, despite an increase in oil production to 2018 levels and greater economic activity, the persistence of acute economic distress experienced by most Venezuelans has given rise to discontent and heightened frustration with the Rodríguez government. There are discernible cracks within Rodríguez’s fragile coalition, and louder voices within Chavismo critical of the direction the current government is pursuing on several fronts. For now, Rodríguez’s support, though hardly assured, is not collapsing, less because of the personal authority she commands or the popularity of her policies than because the alternative could risk further undermining Chavista influence. Moreover, aware that the armed forces are a key pillar of her government, Rodríguez has wisely focused on constantly managing military personnel at senior levels. Venezuela’s economic elites, though far from monolithic, generally applaud Rodríguez’s pragmatism, though concerns persist about legal protections, corruption and political uncertainty in coming years.”
Manuela Jiménez, associate analyst at Control Risks: “Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has largely succeeded in keeping Venezuela’s ruling coalition together. Following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture on Jan. 3, a shared interest in retaining power, the continued fragmentation of the opposition and U.S. leverage over several high-profile officials have helped discourage elite defections and limit internal power struggles. Beneath this cohesion, however, power balances within Chavismo have continued to evolve. Rodríguez has used the post-Maduro transition to strengthen her position within the state, removing some Maduro-era figures from influential posts while elevating trusted allies. These changes have generated friction, particularly among Maduro loyalists critical of Rodríguez’s handling of the former president’s detention and the diminishing influence of figures associated with his administration. Yet these tensions have remained contained, as many of those affected by the reshuffle remain embedded within the broader governing coalition and continue to benefit from its survival. Rodríguez has also balanced domestic and U.S. demands with considerable success. Thus far, Washington has focused primarily on creating conditions for foreign investment and private sector activity rather than pursuing measures that would directly challenge Chavismo’s hold on power. This has allowed her to cooperate with the United States while preserving support among key political and security actors. Economic elites have generally welcomed this approach, particularly the greater regulatory clarity it has brought to sectors such as oil and gas, and the perception that U.S. oversight provides an additional layer of predictability. However, many investors continue to worry about weak legal protections, the government’s ability to alter the rules of the game with limited institutional constraints and Washington’s ability to tighten or ease sanctions depending on Rodríguez’s compliance with U.S. priorities.”
Julia Buxton, professor of justice at Liverpool John Moores University: “The level of support for Delcy Rodríguez, be it public, military or elite, is irrelevant. Ditto her standing in the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Rodríguez is maintained in power by the United States. In this reality, benchmarks such as legitimacy or popularity are peripheral considerations. They do not serve as conventional indicators of stability or direction. What matters to U.S. powerbrokers is that Rodríguez delivers and gets the job of re-opening Venezuela done. As we now know, this opening is purely economic, with the Trump administration forestalling meaningful regime change or elections with some narrative about an apparent three-stage plan. In the economic domain—currently the only standard of U.S. judgment, Rodríguez is performing to a high level. This is evidenced in the flush of legal and regulatory change since January, the overtures to the IMF and her current international investment tour to India and Turkey. Of course, policy and ideological realignment are bitterly resented by some of the old heavy hitters of the Bolivarian Revolution. But there is no alternate or credible contesting authority from within the socialist party or Venezuelan state. Any rebellion will be quickly snuffed out and discredited as a defense of personal privilege. That applies equally to Rodríguez in her dealings with the United States. The strength of her hold on power is purely a factor of U.S. calculations of progress and stability. She could be—and might be—the most reviled personality in the country, but that is a secondary consideration for the United States.”
Jennapher Lunde Seefeldt, associate professor of government and international affairs at Augustana University: “While Nicolás Maduro’s regime certainly strayed from Hugo Chávez’s initial Bolivarian Revolution, acting President Delcy Rodríguez is forcing a reckoning for the revolution’s continued existence. Her compliance with the Trump administration after Maduro’s capture leaves many supporters feeling betrayed and sold off as collateral for an American neoextractivist administrative state. Other long-time Chavistas desire pragmatic economic solutions at the expense of the original ideology. She has purged many top Maduro ministers, either to win favor of Chavistas who were unhappy with Maduro’s corrupt and violent regime and/or under directive of Washington to ensure acquiescent access to Venezuela. The United States and Venezuelan economic elites seek a stable investment environment, which may only be possible with carefully curated and controlled access to the political institutions that shape Venezuela during this pivotal moment. Also problematic is that U.S. control of Venezuelan oil and revenue lacks transparency and has no real mechanisms for accountability. Regardless of perceived Chavismo loyalty, any opposition is excluded and undesirable for the vision that Rodríguez and the United States seem to have for Venezuela. Given the Trump administration’s willful ignorance to past antidemocratic transgressions by the Maduro/Rodríguez regime, political liberalization seems secondary to ensuring open access to Venezuelan oil and mines. Rodríguez faces an impossible balancing act, one that no one will benefit from if political stability cannot be achieved. Economic stability is of course necessary, but without the inclusion of all stakeholders, including the masses, civil society and the opposition, Venezuelan statehood remains precarious.”
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