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On Sunday, Henrique Capriles Radonski emerged as the winner of the Venezuelan opposition’s first open primary contest since Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999. His overwhelming victory offers clues about what he will need to do to have any chance of defeating Chávez on October 7th.
Capriles, who served as president of the Chamber of Deputies and can point to a successful record both as mayor of Baruta (municipality of Caracas) and, currently, governor of the state of Miranda, wisely avoided confronting Chávez in the campaign. He advanced a pragmatic, non-ideological agenda and told voters how he would address Venezuela’s main problems, especially a troubled economy and rampant crime. Chávez’s governance record has been dismal and is his main vulnerability.
Capriles also said that some of Chávez’s policy innovations, such as the “missions” that benefit the poorest Venezuelans, should not only be preserved but in some cases expanded. During Chávez’s 13-year rule, the opposition has often resisted recognizing any redeeming features of Chávez’s policies. That insistence has been one reason they have repeatedly failed to defeat Chávez at the polls.
At 39, Capriles exemplifies a new generation of Venezuelan politicians who cannot be easily accused of belonging to the traditional political class so frequently assailed by Chávez. Capriles was a founding member and has been leader of the center-right First Justice party, created in the 1990s.
Over the years Capriles has become a more skilled and mature political figure. He has learned from his mistakes, and has developed a populist touch. As expected, the primary’s losers have expressed their support for Capriles in his bid to defeat Chávez.
The question, however, is whether that support will be nominal or real. The fact that the opposition decided to hold an open primary and have a single candidate does not mean that all factions will be energized and work tirelessly to defeat Chávez. Strains and differences persist and will need to be reduced.
Chávez’s advantages are well-known. He controls all key institutions, has a lot of money to spend (thanks to high oil prices) to insure votes, and is a formidable campaigner. Chávez retains an emotional connection with many poor Venezuelans that no other politician – including Capriles – can match. He should not be underestimated.
Chávez can be expected to portray Capriles as a privileged candidate who does not understand the everyday concerns of poor Venezuelans, will defend the interests of the elites, and will try to restore the crisis-ridden, pre-Chávez Venezuela. He will also tie Capriles to an opposition that has not always behaved democratically.
In such a highly polarized country, the campaign over the next eight months will focus on trying to win over the approximately 30 percent of Venezuela’s electorate, aligned neither with Chávez nor the opposition. These are the so-called “ni-ni” voters who are dissatisfied with the government’s performance but are not convinced that the opposition can do any better. It is within this segment that the fierce battle will be fought.
The situation in Venezuela remains uncertain. Chávez’s illness is a wild card. The role of the armed forces is also a mystery. Whether Chávez would accept an electoral defeat and give up power is still an open question — the subject of much intense debate.
This is Capriles’s moment and he deserves a lot of credit. He faced a competitive field and ran a smart campaign. But as Capriles knows better than anyone, now comes the hard part.
