President Juan Manuel Santos’s message to Washington is, by now, clear: Colombia wants a close and productive relationship with the United States. He may have new priorities such as improving relations with Venezuela and Ecuador and deepening ties with Asia (China especially). But these should not come at the expense of relations with the US. Santos told the Washington Post he sees Colombia and the US as “strategic partners,” working together to confront regional and global challenges like drugs.

All of that sounds good, but there is still the serious, pending matter of the bilateral free trade agreement. The pact, signed by both governments and approved over four years ago by the Colombian Congress, languishes in the US Congress. It is easy to understand why Santos does not want to devote much time and energy lobbying on an issue hopelessly caught up in partisan infighting in Washington.
But Washington is on the verge of change. On January 5th a new US Congress will be installed. With Republicans in control in the House of Representatives and having stronger representation in the Senate, how do prospects for the accord look today? And what other changes might be expected in US policy towards Colombia and its neighbors?

For the agreement’s supporters, there are hopeful signs but also some concerns. That John Boehner will replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House on January 5th opens up an opportunity. Pelosi, responding to her Democratic constituency, had resisted bringing the measure to a vote.

Boehner, in contrast, is more committed to the agreement and has consistently supported free trade legislation. He will have little difficulty mobilizing many Republican colleagues, though how much support he will be able to muster from the Tea Party is an open question. He should also be able to count on support from the small number of pro free-trade Democrats. Getting the agreement through the Senate shouldn’t be a problem.

The question, however, is whether the White House is prepared to push for the measure and submit the bill for Congressional consideration. President Obama, who has been indifferent on trade in his first two years in office, has consistently said he backs it. But it has not been a priority for him. So far he has not been willing to spend political capital on it. In some sense, trade would be a natural issue for Obama. It fits with his recent move to the center and offers a chance to find common ground with Republicans.
But at the same time Obama is nervous about alienating his Democratic base (most importantly the powerful unions like the AFL-CIO) that are worried about free trade deals in the context of high unemployment (nearly 10 percent). On December 17th, Obama’s chief spokesman Robert Gibbs was not too encouraging. He said the White House did not plan to submit the Colombia agreement to Congress “because it doesn’t have the votes.” Gibbs also expressed the greater urgency seen in the impending trade agreement with South Korea which, because of the rising concerns in Washington about North Korea, has broad ramifications.

On geo-political questions related to Latin America, the new Republican-led House of Representatives will also bring some important changes. Connie Mack from Florida, who is taking over as the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs, will put the Obama administration on the defensive for being too soft with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.

Mack is a hardliner who has urged the administration to name Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism because of its support of the FARC, ELN, ETA and its alliance with Iran. The new Chairwoman of the influential House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban American from Miami, has a tough stance particularly on the Castro brothers and Chavez but also other Latin American leaders sympathetic to Cuba. Mack and Ros-Lehtinen may not be applauding Santos’s rapprochement with Chavez, but there is no sign they will withdraw their support for Colombia and the trade agreement (which would only please Chavez).

In the coming period Washington is likely to remain uncertain and unpredictable. Santos’s domestic priorities, which emphasize human rights and rule of law, not only seek to strengthen Colombia’s democracy. They are also the best thing Santos can do to convince most Democrats and Republicans, in Congress and the White House, that the bilateral free trade agreement deserves ratification in 2011.