This monthly assessment is part of Ground Truth: Elections 2026, a year-long featured project of the Brazil Program focused on the 2026 electoral cycles in Brazil and the United States. Throughout 2026, partners will have access to the monthly assessments, additional special analyses, direct access to our experts for strategic advice, and invitations to exclusive briefings and events.
This edition highlights an early shift in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race toward the opposition, as the issue environment moves toward crime and corruption, dynamics that typically erode incumbency advantages. In the United States, polling points to skepticism about deeper involvement in Iran, concern over fuel prices, and resistance to escalation, factors that have weighed on presidential approval and could create additional headwinds for Republicans ahead of the midterms.
The assessment was prepared by Clifford Young, Bruna Santos, Giulia Branco Spiess, and Mauricio Moura.
The February, March, and April editions are being shared as part of a limited free trial.