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Four Top Stories from Latin America in 2013

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In 2013, four news stories in Latin America stood out. All have long histories and huge implications. They are still evolving, and bear close watching in 2014.

The most worrying development was the continued, dramatic deterioration of the situation in Venezuela following the death of Hugo Chavez in March. The void left by Chavez has been acutely felt.    President Nicolas Maduro has been politically inept.

The country’s economic indicators, with rampant inflation and shortages of basic goods, are alarming. Crime continues to climb.   With December’s municipal elections, Maduro got some breathing space. But even under the most optimistic scenarios, Venezuela’s problems will take many years to resolve. Looking ahead, there is no greater concern for the hemisphere.

In contrast, over the past year Mexico pursued the most promising reform agenda in the Americas.   While economic growth was disappointing and the security situation showed few signs of progress, the country’s three main political parties forged a commendable pact, which has only recently broken down.  A government led by PRI president Enrique Pena Nieto successfully pushed a series of reforms – from education to labor to telecommunications to fiscal and, finally, energy.

The reformist impulse reflects a Mexican society that has been transformed since the PRI gave up power in 2000 after seven decades. It is, however, premature to celebrate. Regulations governing the reforms are crucial, and so is implementation. But Mexico is moving to put a more modern framework in place. Its participation in the Pacific Alliance with three South American countries – Colombia, Peru, and Chile – should not go unnoticed.

The third significant – and surely the most surprising – story took place in Brazil, the region’s preeminent economic power that witnessed massive urban protests in June. Over one million Brazilians, many who had recently ascended to the “middle class”, took to the streets to express discontent with the quality of public services and pervasive corruption.

Although the protests were a healthy measure of the progress in Brazilian society and democracy, they also posed the most severe test to the government led by Dilma Rousseff. Rousseff plunged in the polls, but in recent months has recovered some ground. Although she is favored to be re-elected in 2014, the economy remains uncertain, and the public mood can quickly sour again. In 2013, Brazil, along with other commodity-rich South American nations, felt the impact of a slowing Chinese economy.

Any list of the major Latin American stories in 2013 would be incomplete without Colombia. The peace process that seeks to end the country’s tragic, five-decade old internal armed conflict is not only significant for Latin America’s third most populous country, but also for the entire hemisphere. Although the obstacles to an enduring peace that is supported by most Colombians remain formidable, there were some encouraging signs in 2013.

At the same time, in 2013 Colombia experienced considerable mobilization and turbulence, in both rural areas and urban centers – the product of mounting social pressures and demands.  For president Juan Manuel Santos such unrest caused a serious political problem. Polls showed a sharp decline in his level of public support and broad dissatisfaction with the government’s performance.

Yet, Santos, buoyed by economic growth, has taken corrective measures, regained political support, and will likely be reelected in 2014. The unprecedented feud between him and former president Alvaro Uribe will be a key factor in the 2014 election campaign – and was in itself a significant Latin American story over the past year.

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