The US presidential election has entered a critical phase. Last week, Mitt Romney amassed enough delegates to insure the Republican nomination. Attention is now focused on him.

Of course, for a long time it was clear that Romney would challenge Obama in November. His superior organization and money gave him a decided edge over a weak field of contenders.

Current polls suggest the election will be very close. Romney is a flawed candidate who excites little enthusiasm in the Republican Party, but Obama is vulnerable mainly because of a sputtering economy and 8.2% unemployment.

Each candidate has firm supporters. The election will be fought to win over the independent voters who make up about 10% of the electorate. That group knows Obama, likes him, but will nonetheless want to check out Romney, who is still relatively unknown.

That is why the next two months – even before the party conventions – are so important. Each campaign is actively trying to tell voters who Romney is.

Interestingly, each campaign team believes that Romney’s background as a businessman, and especially his leading role in the private equity firm Bain Capital, works to its political advantage.

The Obama campaign is trying to portray Romney as uncaring – only interested in making money, not creating jobs. In an increasingly unequal nation, Obama is emphasizing the theme of fairness. The campaign also criticizes Romney’s poor record as governor of Massachusetts.

The Romney campaign is convinced that its candidate’s business background is an asset in a country that confronts such severe fiscal problems. Romney may not be as likable as Obama but, his supporters say, he understands the private sector and has proven to be a competent executive.

The rush to “define Romney” is occurring in about ten “swing” states. These states – some in the west like Nevada, others in the east like Virginia – are so tight that either candidate could win.
According to the US’s electoral system, winning state delegates, not the popular vote, is what ultimately matters. In such a polarized country, neither campaign will spend resources to appeal to about 80 percent of the population, who are from states aligned either with Obama or Romney.

To be sure, over the next five months other factors could influence the election outcome. Foreign policy crises could become center stage. In some states, social issues like gay marriage could matter, as could Romney’s vice presidential pick. And the debates are yet to come.

But the election will be decided on the economy, and whether Americans sense that things are getting better or worse. After more than three years, they have followed Obama and know how he performs. Now they will take a hard look at the other guy.