Colombia and the leftist rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced Tuesday that they had signed an agreement to launch peace negotiations. Chile and Venezuela will be observers at the talks, which will begin in Oslo, Norway, and continue in Havana, Cuba.

As the Washington Post reported, the talks represent a “new attempt to end the Western Hemisphere’s longest-running conflict” and the first such effort since three years of negotiations “ended disastrously in 2002.”

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, offered several reasons why the talks could possibly succeed this time around. “The Colombian security forces are stronger and more effective than they were a decade ago. The FARC have been weakened,” he said.

The international context is also more favorable than a decade ago, he added, with “enormous goodwill” toward the Colombian government “and a willingness to assist in an eventual peace process in any way possible.”

“Santos’ rapprochement with neighboring Venezuela and Ecuador has created more favorable conditions for regional cooperation and support in ending the conflict,” Shifter said.

Aldo Civico, director of the International Institute for Peace at Rutgers University, also views the talks with “prudent optimism,” citing his sense that the Colombian government is committed to finding a solution, a feeling that he said was reinforced by the negotiating team the government unveiled Wednesday to lead the peace talks.

Civico emphasized the presence of retired Gen. Jorge Mora Rangel, who was chief of the armed forces during failed negotiations with the FARC 10 years ago, explaining that the involvement of a “hard-core general” is key, because “this is an armed conflict that needs to be settled among combatants.”

Both experts said it came as no surprise that the Santos government moved toward talks with the FARC. The question was only when it would happen and under what circumstances both parties would be driven to the table.

“This is an irresistible legacy for any Colombian president, and Santos in particular has had this goal in mind,” Shifter said. “To some extent the timing has to do with Santos’ declining public support in recent months. If the gamble works out, Santos will be able to restore his political standing.”

“The FARC,” he continued, “have been on the defensive militarily and might well see Santos as the best chance to reach an agreement. Talks with the government give them some political oxygen and a boost in legitimacy. They see themselves as dealing with the government as equals.”

Asked why the agreement does not include a cease-fire, Shifter said the Santos government wanted a cease-fire as a condition for the talks, but when the FARC proposed a bilateral cease-fire, the government understandably rejected the idea.

“It is very difficult and complicated to pursue negotiations when there is no cease-fire,” he said. “Colombian society no doubt wants peace, but at the same time, Colombians are tired of the FARC playing games, and they have limited patience.”

As for what has changed within the FARC itself over the past decade, Civico said the organization has taken a major hit in terms of its territorial control.

“They have been pushed by the military in very effective ways toward the margins and the peripheral areas of the country, far away from the centers of politics and the centers of business,” he said.

Shifter also explained that the FARC has shifted its tactics as its ties with the drug trade deepened. The organization is “stepping up attacks against infrastructure installations,” using Venezuelan territory to “regroup and rearm,” and engaging “in extortion to sustain its operations.”

Asked what the FARC’s prospects are for transitioning from armed insurrection to unarmed political opposition, Shifter said it is highly unlikely that the majority of the FARC will become political actors.

“Many combatants have been heavily involved in criminal activities,” he said. “Under an accord, they would look to be reintegrated into Colombian society. That will be one of the central and most difficult challenges of negotiations. Those FARC members that want to become political actors will need adequate government protection and guarantees.”

Moving forward, Shifter said that an important element of the broader process surrounding the talks will be the extent to which the U.S. becomes involved, as well as the potential roles that Brazil and Mexico could play, as “both Latin American powers could be very constructive.”

Civico said the outcome will depend on whether “there is a deep commitment to give up violence and to end the armed conflict.” But he warned against spoilers.

“There are people who have no interest in this being successful on both sides,” he said. “They will try to do everything they can possibly do to disrupt the process.”