On October 9, 2025, the Inter-American Dialogue hosted a hybrid event titled Colombia’s Road to 2026: Challenges and Opportunities, bringing together experts to discuss the current landscape Colombia is facing ahead of the 2026 elections. The event addressed the deteriorating security situation, the current electoral landscape, and U.S.-Colombia relations.
The conversation opened with remarks by Rebecca Bill Chavez, president and CEO of the Inter-American Dialogue, who highlighted how the assassination of a presidential pre-candidate underscored worsening security conditions amid ongoing conflict. She noted that persistent drug-related violence adds to the deeply concerning landscape for the electoral process. Chavez emphasized that although U.S.–Colombia relations are facing a critical moment, the more than 200-year partnership has repeatedly overcome challenges in the past and remains essential to both nations.
Carolina Barco, former ambassador of Colombia to the United States and former minister of foreign affairs, opened the discussion by emphasizing Colombia’s strong electoral tradition and the resilience of its democratic institutions, which remain a key source of strength. She warned, however, that the deteriorating security environment poses serious risks to the upcoming presidential elections. The government’s “total peace” policy has weakened state authority: the armed forces have been reduced by 25 percent, territorial control has eroded, and nearly all indicators of violence—including extortion, kidnapping, and forced displacement—have risen. The only decline in homicide rates reflects not improved safety but the loss of state presence in areas now dominated by armed groups.
Ambassador Barco also highlighted the importance of U.S.–Colombia security cooperation, noting that while the bilateral relationship has experienced ups and downs, maintaining collaboration in key areas remains crucial. The recent weakening of this partnership, she cautioned, compounds Colombia’s challenges and underscores the difficult conditions under which the 2026 elections will take place.
Sergio Guzmán, director and co-founder of Colombia Risk Analysis, highlighted the high level of political uncertainty as Colombia heads into a presidential election year. Given that there are at least 107 pre-candidates, he divided them into three buckets, the left, the center, and the right, and outlined what each must do to be viable. The left must prioritize coalition-building with traditional parties and select candidates capable of transcending ideological boundaries; the center must consolidate behind a single candidate before the first election round to remain competitive; and the right cannot campaign solely on anti-Petro sentiment but rather needs a compelling agenda. Guzmán also noted that President Gustavo Petro has maintained a stable 37 percent approval rating, not because of his policies, but because of what he represents. He emphasized that this is the first government that “looks like the country,” including Afro-Colombians and individuals from marginalized backgrounds, which gives Petro strong symbolic appeal.
Furthermore, Guzmán highlighted the rise of “security populism,” a regional trend favoring radical “law-and-order” narratives over balanced security policy, and the risks it poses to democratic governance. He noted that, following the assassination of a pre-presidential candidate, campaigns have shifted toward social media, increasing the potential for security populism narratives, disinformation, and foreign interference.
Cynthia J. Arnson, former director of the Wilson Center Latin American Program, expanded on Barco’s and Guzmán’s observations about the difficult moment Colombia is facing. Arnson emphasized that Petro’s confrontational style and anti-U.S. rhetoric have deepened tensions between Bogotá and Washington. However, she underscored that Washington’s desire to preserve institutional ties remains evident, as the U.S.–Colombia relationship is deeply institutionalized and likely to endure beyond Petro’s term.
Turning to the economy, Arnson observed that while macroeconomic indicators appear relatively strong, Colombia continues to face serious challenges, including the suspension of the fiscal rule, rising public debt, and persistent informality affecting nearly 58 percent of the workforce. She added that inequality and infrastructure deficits remain unresolved long-term obstacles to sustainable growth.
The Q&A opened with an analysis of the ongoing Venezuelan migrant crisis, which has placed immense strain on Colombia’s economy. Historically, much of the funding to support Venezuelan migrants came from the United States; however, this assistance has declined sharply following the cuts to U.S. foreign assistance in January 2025, putting greater pressure on domestic resources. The discussion emphasized the need to balance immediate humanitarian relief with long-term planning. The conversation then turned to the fragmentation of Colombia’s political opposition. Guzmán observed that, unlike prior electoral cycles in which singular figures such as Álvaro Uribe could unify the opposition, the current field is highly fragmented, with multiple aspirants competing for influence and often prioritizing personal advantage over coalition-building, which complicates efforts to present a strong opposition candidate.
