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Citizens Feeling More Optimistic

Latin Americans are in an upbeat mood. Most (78 percent) feel that they and their families are moving in the right direction, even if their countries (45 percent) and the world (41 percent) are not. Still, in 2003, fewer Latin Americans saw their country (30 percent) and the world (27 percent) as being on the right track, while rating their own standing a bit lower (72 percent).

Since 1995, Latinobarómetro — a respected public-opinion think tank in Santiago, Chile — has issued annual reports on democracy and other topics based on interviews with Latin Americans in 18 countries. Their views on globalization and international relations, however, have only twice been the subject of in-depth surveys: in 2003 and in September-October 2009, the latter results presented in June 2010 report.

In Brazil (91 percent), Venezuela (86 percent) and Costa Rica/Uruguay (tied at 84 percent), citizens see themselves and their families as strongly on the right track. At the other end, those in Ecuador (70 percent), the Dominican Republic (68 percent) and Nicaragua (62 percent) registered the lowest satisfaction with their lives, albeit with majorities in all three countries still satisfied.

When pollsters asked how their country was doing, Brazilians (75 percent), Chileans (65 percent), Salvadorans (63 percent), Uruguayans (59 percent) and Panamanians (58 percent) nodded their approval. In all others — from Bolivia (49 percent) down to last-place Argentina (19 percent) — a majority see their countries moving in the wrong direction.

Mixed reviews

The gap between Latin Americans’ perception of their prospects and those of their countries could partly be a function of confidence in government. In Venezuela, crime and corruption are major problems which, for example, Hugo Chávez can’t or won’t stop. In Peru, however, only 32 percent see their country on the right track in spite of solid economic performance.

Citizens in four countries — El Salvador (62 percent), Brazil (61 percent), the Dominican Republic (55 percent) and Guatemala (53 percent) — hold favorable views of the world. Founded on a booming economy, Brazilian optimism needs little explanation; the other three do. Though none is a middle-income country, all are in CAFTA-DR, the Central American-Dominican free-trade agreement with the United States. Salvadorans, Dominicans and Guatemalans may well be expressing their hopes for the future.

While most don’t see the world on the right track, Latin Americans have positive opinions of specific countries or powers: the United States (74 percent), Spain (65 percent), Japan and the European Union (tied at 63 percent), and Canada and China (both at 58 percent). These approval ratings — especially for the United States and Spain — are encouraging: Most of the region’s citizens are looking forward to improving their lives, not backward nursing historical grievances.

Argentines once more fall at the opposite end of the spectrum: At 61 percent, they express the least positive views of the United States. Two caveats are in order.

• Given the legacy of Juan Domingo Perón — Argentina’s strongman and precursor of today’s anti-American populism — it is perhaps a marvel that a majority holds the United States in high regard.

• The crisis of 2001 coupled with Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández’s policies have reinforced the Argentine proclivity to blame outsiders for their problems while shortchanging their own responsibility.

Perspectives on Cuba

On average, 40 percent of Latin Americans view Cuba positively. In only four countries — El Salvador and Guatemala (each at 54 percent), Nicaragua (53 percent) and Paraguay (51 percent) — does a majority give the island high marks. Land-locked Paraguay is usually a Latin American outlier. The other three countries likely see Cuba through the Cuban doctors who tend to the neediest and are rightly appreciative.

What’s striking is how two country blocs view the United States and Cuba. Central America and the Dominican Republic are the most pro-American: the DR (91 percent), El Salvador (89 percent), Nicaragua (75 percent), Honduras (81 percent), Costa Rica (86 percent) and Guatemala (67 percent). Nicaragua aside, populism in Venezuela (43 percent), Bolivia (46 percent) and Ecuador (40 percent) hasn’t won Cuba much favor. Across the region the poor give Cuba the lowest approval.

Rhetoric doesn’t put food on the table or keep citizens safe from crime.

Latin Americans generally reward good — or good enough — government that manages the economy with competence. Though the recent crisis has bolstered the place of government, 47 percent (versus 51 percent in 2003) said their well-being depends on their own efforts.

Latin Americans manifest remarkable good sense. I wish I could say the same of their politicians.

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