A significant narrative of foreign policy in the 21st century has been the rapid ascension of large developing countries –China particularly stands out – as a counterweight or challenge to US hegemony.
To be sure, talk of declining American influence has been around for decades. But in recent years, Chinese presence into traditional US spheres of influence has become increasingly salient.
Nowhere is such a change clearer than in Latin America, long considered the United States “backyard.” More and more, the region’s leaders are looking east instead of north when developing policies to compete in today’s global economy. This shift presents both significant opportunities and challenges for the region.
Already, China is the major trading partner of Brazil, Chile, and Peru – and will soon be the second largest of Colombia (10 years ago it was 14th). The country’s growing presence in the region is largely a function of its tremendous appetite for commodities – abundant in South America – which have fueled its spectacular development. China has moved aggressively to take advantage of opportunities in the region in which the US has been disengaged. For South America, the results have largely been positive, as reflected in high growth rates, which have enabled a substantial reduction in poverty and even inequality.
Although Colombia has lagged behind some of its neighbors in the process of engaging fully with China, it is quickly catching up. A proposed free trade agreement between Colombia and China could further expand bilateral trade.
But the trade is heavily skewed toward resource extraction, with 84% concentrated in Colombia’s mining sector. There is some concern about becoming overly dependent on commodity exports, which could have implications for balanced, long-term growth.
Beyond trade, however, the Chinese economic role in Colombia has been modest. There are no more than 40 Chinese companies currently operating in the country and China has only invested $32 million in Colombia over the past 10 years. (Chinese investment remains low throughout the region.)
While the US private sector is enthusiastic about investing in Colombia (and other Latin American countries), Washington’s difficult politics have affected the overall US-Colombia relationship. Colombians who followed the six years it took for Congress to approve the US-Colombia free trade agreement know how complicated US politics have become.
China, on the other hand, is focused and ready to do business. In infrastructure development, Colombians are understandably looking to China for much-needed, no strings-attached capital for projects like the proposed oil pipeline to Venezuela and the Magdalena river hydropower project.
Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to ignore the advantages that come with geography, history and culture. The US and Colombia enjoy a long-term, largely positive relationship. Plan Colombia, in place for a dozen years, has been strategically important for both countries.
As Hu Jintao and President Santos noted recently in Beijing, building mutual trust is a challenge in the incipient Colombia-China relations. US businesses, for example, are familiar with the nature of negotiations with their Colombian counterparts, who insist on bidding processes for major projects. The longstanding ties with United States and the relative foreignness of Chinese culture and business practices suggest that, if Colombia pursues smart diplomacy, it will be able to keep both powers as productive partners in the foreseeable future.
In the western hemisphere, the US does not see China as a threat, but rather a central part of a 21st century reality characterized by new, rising global powers. The question is whether Washington will witness this change passively, or will become more energetic and motivated to take advantage of the growing opportunities in Colombia and much of Latin America.
