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If I occasionally scratch my head during this presentation, it’s because it’s really hard to figure out what is going to happen in Venezuela in three weeks.

Today, Chávez has a lead of 10 to 20 %, according to most polls. A few polls give Henrique Capriles Radonski, the opposition alliance candidate, an edge of 4 to 6%. I don’t know which pollsters are right, but I have my own point of view. And what I see is a slow but steady change.

The most noticeable feature at the present time is the sharp contrast between the campaigns of the two candidates.

Chávez organized his campaign around two ideas. The first is magical thinking. The second is his promise to continue his legacy, but more efficiently.

A few months ago, Venezuelans were living in the midst of a set of rumors and conspiracy theories, and followed the events in the life of their leader as if they were episodes in a thriller. They saw how Chavez embarked on a quest to find the chalice of eternal youth, like the hero in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. With his face and body still swollen by chemotherapy, Chavez has toured churches praying to Jesus Christ for a miracle and has been the object of many different kinds of religious rites promoting his recovery from cancer. “Managing his illness in this way, Chávez has transmitted the idea that he is “larger than life”, a martyr capable of laying down his life for the revolution.

According to psychologist Vladimir Gessen, who also has suffered from cancer, “These actions have created a powerful psychological connection with the common people who have rallied around their leader. It’s a miraculous campaign.”

Aware of the flimsiness of his position after being in and out of the political arena for a year, on July 8th Chavez declared “I’m free of it, completely free.”

The president presented his cure as a miracle come about just in time for his race for the presidency. His intent was to bolster his followers’ confidence and dispell doubts about his health. And it worked.

Nationwide polls (by Datanalisis) show that when Chávez announced that his body was host to cancerous cells, 48% of Venezuelans approved of his administration.  This was one of the lowest points since his re-election in 2006. But four months later, the percentage had risen to 59%.  In July, Chávez’s government had an approval rating of 51% and voting intention figures of between 43% and 46%, two strong predictors of success in the upcoming October 7th presidential elections.

Although his recovery has forced Chávez to reduce his titanic rhythm, he set out with an advantage: in essence, he has been on campaign for 14 years. Every-one in the country knows about him and he can count on the enormous resources of the state.  The president is betting on a formula that has been successful in previous electoral events: inundate the country with public works –and with posters of himself.  In fact, public spending increased by 23% during the first semester of 2012.

Last year, in the midst of his cancer treatment, Chávez launched MISION GRAN VIVIENDA VENEZUELA, an ambitious housing plan to solve the huge housing deficit in the country, a problem that gets worse by the minute. When you go to Caracas and other places in the country you see building construction everywhere. Since 2012, the government claims to have given out the keys to 250.000 new homes and has promised to deliver 100.000 more, some of them fully furnished. This program could have an important impact on the election, since it shows that Chávez’s government can deliver in vital areas.

Chávez also decreed a 25% increase in the minimum wage.

But something has happened. His spending is not working as it used to in previous elections. Polls coincide in that support for Chávez is no longer growing. So while Chavez´s attacks on the opposition candidate, journalists and the media may strengthen his position amongst his loyalists they may alienate a group known as chavistas light, as well as swing voters that are essential to his victory on October 7.

On the other hand, Capriles has used an electoral strategy of direct contacts, and house-by-house, village-by-village visits, that has been surprisingly effective and has put him on the map. Capriles has visited more than 200 towns, while Chávez has held only about 30 public events outside Caracas,

Against Chávez, Capriles Radonski has used what I would call Aikido strategies. According to Wikipedia, Aikido is a Japanese martial art that essentially consists, of “blending with the motion of the attacker and redirecting the force of the attack, rather than opposing it head-on. ” For instance, in terms of public policies, Capriles Radonski has decided to build on Chávez’s social programs but has promised to improve them and make them more efficient by reaching all of those in need, regardless of their party or ideological affiliations. He has also been more proactive than Chávez in presenting practical plans for addressing peoples’
concerns in areas such as crime, employment, social security, oil policy, housing and infrastructure.

Chávez, the Soul of the Homeland as he claims to be, presented a Management Plan full of good intentions, such as “To transform Venezuela into a regional power, socially, economically and politically within the nascent Latin American and the Caribbean region, in order to guarantee the creation of a peace zone in our América”;  or, “To contribute to the conservation of life on the planet and the salvation of the human species”.

But the plan also includes other proposals oriented towards extending the control of the executive branch by strengthening a power structure based on the relationship between the leader, Chávez, and the community.

Another quote:

“We will consolidate and expand the power of the people and of socialist democracy….  The creation and development of new types of popular participation demonstrate how the Bolivarian Revolution is advancing and consolidating its hegemony and control of the polítical, social, economic and cultural orientation of the nation.” (Proposal of the candidate for the Bolivarian Socialist Fatherland, commander Hugo Chávez 2013-2019 22).

Though these proposals may sound like pure logorrhea, they make the opposition feel very nervous. And rightly so. Their hidden aim is to accelerate the dismantling of the structures of local and state government that are currently in place.

Chávez has been selling his legacy and promising more efficiency and competitiveness in the future in order to complete his revolutionary Opus Magnum. And he has made a real effort to deliver, as is demonstrated in Misión Gran Vivienda Venezuela.

But in many ways, what he offers is of more of the same, with a
worn-out discourse that seems to be out of touch with the problems that are most pressing for the voter. Even though Chavez´s project is firmly anchored in popular support, it is my impression that the narrative that underlies chavismo is becoming more and more of a cacophony.

In contrast, the opposition sounds new and refreshing. Today, for the first time in 14 years, the opposition is clearly able to compete against Chávez with a plan and not just with a list of principles. It also has a leader elected democratically, in party elections.

That’s why the expectations Chavistas have of easily defeating the opposition have been curbed in the last weeks.

In this sense, Capriles Radonski’s campaign has been really smart and he, as a candidate, has done a great job so far.

It’s apparent that Chávez is desperately trying to make voting for his rival a risky business. When he says there’s going to be chaos and instability or even a civil war if he loses, he’s also manipulating public opinion by promoting an ecology of fear in a country with one of the highest homicide rates in the world and a dysfunctional justice system.

In August I toured with Capriles Radonski in several states. I asked him what his view of this electoral contest was. “My aim on October 7th is not just to become President, but to usher in a new era, ” he replied. Later he said, “The dispute is between a political project that looks to the past and one that looks to the future”.

Which leads to a second observation. After 14 years in power, Chávez has become the representative of the establishment.

That’s why when Capriles Radonski portrays himself as representing the future and what´s new, Chávez reacts in public with tantrums claiming that he himself and the revolution are what´s new and represent the future, and that his opponent embodies the oligarchy, the bourgeoisie, the capitalist order. Chávez insults his rival in many ways, calling him a pig because of his Jewish ancestors, a Fascist and above all a Nazi. This is in spite of the fact that Capriles Radonski’s great-grand parents died in the Holocaust.

In my opinion, Chaves is behaving like this because he knows that this is his last chance.

For our media Caesar, the stakes are much higher than for Capriles. A national revolution and a Latin American project are in jeopardy, his government has failed on several fronts and though his supporters are still strong they’re no longer submissive, as is demonstrated by many little revolts in the Chavista ranks. In fact, several radical labor protests are producing cracks in his traditional power base. ”

When I think of Chávez these days, what comes to me is the image of a wonderful magician, but an old one, whose tricks are worn out by repetition and don’t spark the flame of fascination that they used to. His magic is fading away.

This election is going to be a test to see if the interplay of personal charisma, popular votes, oil money, and intimidation of dissidents that has been standard operating procedure for Chávez’s power, is still working.

For me, the result is going to be really close, and probably will be neck to neck.

The key question is whether Chávez is out of fashion, as his apparent decline indicates, or not yet.

If Chávez wins, he will do his best to take all, as he always does. He has repeatedly promised to smash the opposition, so his next stop will be the December 16th elections for governor, where he will try to win over the key opposition states in order to further his hegemony. He knows that they are dangerous to his rule, because  any possibility of achieving complete control over the country is deadlocked by key opposition states that prevent his advance.

There is another important aspect to be considered if Chavez wins: if rumors about his illness are true, he needs to choose a vice president who will be accepted as his inheritor by the Chavistas. This is a difficult scenario which could be a great opportunity for the opposition.

For Capriles Radonski the set of challenges is different. First, if he wins, he must use his first 100 hours to defend his position and move quickly to establish his national leadership by persuading Chavistas that his intention is to work together, reconcile and not retaliate. He will face troubled waters for at least two years of transition when he will have to build a new broadly based coalition and start a process of institutional reconstruction. At the same time, he will have to lead the opposition to another victory in the December election, in order to stress his role as a national leader. And he will also have to fulfill people’s great expectations by curbing criminality and promoting economic growth.

I won’t even go into another series of challenges in foreign affairs raging from Colombia peace negotiations with FARC, Cuba’s dependency on Venezuelan oil, or regional and hemispheric arrangement. If the opposition wins, it will have to deal with all these, but now its main focus is the domestic agenda.

The second scenario for Capriles and the opposition is even more complex.

The present contest is the climax of Capriles Radonski’s career as a politician. He has never lost an election. But it’s also much more than that.  To be accepted as a real leader, he must either win the presidency or lose it in a close race with Chávez. It’s what I would call ‘winning by losing’, that is, make the result worth the effort by helping the opposition to grow considerably. And in this case he has to prevent Chávez from taking all. This would be the only way to ensure his undisputable leadership of an emotionally unstable opposition, notable for its frequent ups and downs, and opposition that vacillates between viewing October 7th as the Day of Judgement or as the Day of Resurrection.

This means that if things don’t go well, Capriles must prepare his followers for the daunting task of assuming their defeat without giving up. It will be a test of maturity for the opposition.
Because regardless of what happens, and in spite of the looming governance crisis, the country will go on.

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