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A week ago there was both expected and unexpected big news in Latin America. Not surprisingly, Rafael Correa won a landslide reelection in Ecuador. And in a move that caught many off guard, the apparently very ill Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez returned to Caracas from Havana.
Correa’s resounding victory leaves Ecuador with few if any constraints on executive power. Alianza Pais, the government’s party, commands over 70 percent of the Congress. It is virtually the only party. Correa, who already controls the judiciary and wages fierce attacks on the press, has promised a “legislative steamroller” to advance what he calls the “citizens revolution.”
Correa is clearly popular, and the opposition has been weak and fractured. But the implications of such a powerful executive for democracy and the rule of law are troubling. Conflicts are bound to develop, but they will likely take place not in the courts or the Congress but in the streets. At the regional level, Correa’s assaults on press freedom are of particular concern.
Correa is mainly interested in tightening his grip and perpetuating power in Ecuador. He will use his impressive communication skills to build a favorable image in Latin America and globally. His decision to take on the high-profile Assange case fits with that strategy.
But although Correa is rhetorically skilled, he cannot take Chavez’s place on the regional stage. He lacks Chavez’s resources and ambition to lead a coalition of countries that could be a counterweight to the United States. Unlike Chavez, Correa does not see himself as Simon Bolivar.
In Venezuela there is great uncertainty, though an election seems likely. In the short-term the government has the advantage. After defeats in October and December, the opposition is struggling, and there is popular sympathy for Chavez. But no Chavista figure can match Chavez’s charisma, and in light of Venezuela’s profound economic and security crises, it will be hard to hold things together over time.
Also without Chavez, ALBA will likely become even weaker. This was Chavez’s personal project that will lose any remaining vitality once he leaves the scene.
