On March 20, 2026, president and CEO of the Inter-American Dialogue, Rebecca Bill Chavez, spoke with BBC World News America.

COMMENTS FROM CHAVEZ: 

“There is a dire humanitarian crisis in Cuba, but the crisis predates the halt of oil shipments from Venezuela and Mexico. However, it is getting worse. Fuel shortages are affecting critical sectors, including healthcare, food distribution, and transport, and are contributing to rising levels of crime. The state’s monthly rationing system, known as La Libreta, which is intended to function as a social safety net, is not sufficient to meet basic needs. It covers only a fraction of the month at this point. There are significant shortages of essential goods such as cooking oil, rice, and eggs.”

“The U.S. will be pushing for some economic opening that allows more space for the private sector and less state control over the economy. Perhaps we’ll see a push for the release of political prisoners and some sort of political opening. But it’s not clear at what speed.”

“Are they looking for a sort of Delcy Rodriguez figure like we saw in Venezuela? There isn’t a figure like that who is waiting in the wings in Cuba. And there is the question of whether this will lead to a genuine democratic transition. Secretary Rubio has said it doesn’t have to happen all at once, so there could be a gradual economic and political opening. We don’t yet know what the Trump administration’s ultimate objective is.”

“The Communist regime has been around for 67 years. If there is real democratic change in Cuba, that could be a political success for the Trump administration. But if it is simply a replacement of Miguel Díaz-Canel with another regime operative, that could fall flat.”

“At present, neither China nor Russia appears to be offering support at a level that would significantly alter conditions on the ground. Their engagement has been largely rhetorical rather than material. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are providing humanitarian assistance at this time.”