Peru’s Path Forward: Navigating Political, Economic, and Global Dynamics

BBC

Share

Authors

    Topics

    Related Links

    Can Guaidó Gain the Support of the Venezuelan military?

    Michael Shifter spoke with Laura Trevelyan on BBC World News to analyze the future of Juan Guaidó and the Venezuelan military as the pressure coming from the Trump administration.

    Comments from Michael Shifter:

    “In some respect [the actions on April 30] are a step forward, [Guaidó] certainly has more support from the Venezuelan military today than he did yesterday. The question is, is it enough to really force the collapse of the regime? Which of course is the objective of Guido and his supporters. I think we see today that it wasn’t enough to force the regime to fall but it’s enough to show that there’s pressure from the streets and also from some ranks of the armed forces that have turned to Guaidó.”

    “The hope is that [the military] will interpret today’s results as showing this process [of military officers turning towards Guaidó and abandoning Maduro] is really building. Instead of having a violent end to this crisis [the military can] try to engage in negotiations, to look for some formula that may lead ultimately towards a transition. The other possibility is that [the military] will see this as a real threat to them, they will dig in and there’ll be massive repression. I think it can go one of two different ways and hopefully it will go the first.”

    “Clearly the US is fully supporting Guaidó. One of the people [Bolton] mentioned was the Minister of Defense, Padrino. There have been conversations but certainly today Padrino did not abandon Maduro, Padrino is still with Maduro and he gave a press conference and he showed that he’s still supporting the government. There is pressure from the Trump administration but there’s a lot of pressure on the military to stay loyal to Maduro.”

    “Mr. Bolton said in his comments today [that this is the] last chance for democratic transition and if not Venezuela will sink into a long-term dictatorship. I think that imagery evokes the Bay of Pigs in Cuba which was a long term dictatorship [that] we still have today. I think in Venezuela the situation is dramatically different, there’s still more possibilities of dialogue. There is an opposition in Venezuela today, there was no opposition in Cuba in the early 1960’s so we have a different situation.”

    “It’s hard to overstate [the current situation in Venezuela]. Five thousand people a day are going to Colombia and the border already has a million and a half refugees. There are people that are literally starving to death, having a meal once every couple of days. The images are really heartbreaking, the situation is very serious and there is an urgency to try to reach some sort of resolution. That resolution could happen through violence or it could happen through more peaceful means and my hope is that today will help create the conditions for a negotiated end to this tragedy.”

    Watch the full interview here

    COMENTARIOS DE TARACIUK BRONER:

    Q & A:

    Q

    ¿Qué tan válido ves tú — o legítimo — el temor que reporta la Casa Blanca de que aumente la migración haitiana?

    A

    “Una política de seguridad que funcione debe tener dos pilares: una visión punitivista donde quien comete un delito vaya preso, pero con debido proceso y bajo investigaciones por un poder judicial independiente y, por otro lado, una serie de políticas que sean más sociales y preventivas que eviten la comisión del delito.” 

    View Video Clip

    Key Findings

    Suggested Content

    Taraciuk Broner: “El periodismo independiente y la sociedad civil juegan un papel fundamental para contar lo que realmente está pasando en nuestra región”

    Tamara Taraciuk Broner, directora del Programa sobre Estado de derecho, conversó con César Miguel Rondón en En Conexión sobre el nuevo informe "Venezuela: Hoja de

    Orozco: “Russian military aid and presence play a key role in [Nicaragua’s] stability”

    In an interview with Le Monde, political scientist Manuel Orozco believes that "political power is now concentrated in the hands of a family clan, with

    Q&A with Jackson Almeida and Gabriel Corrêa: “The Root Cause of Brazil’s Educational Inequality is Structural Racism”

    Interview with Gabriel Corrêa e Jackson Almeida from Todos Pela Educação, on their perspectives about the educational trajectory of Brazil's Black population, including recent developments,

    Subscribe To
    Latin America Advisors

    * indicates required field

    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    The Inter-American Dialogue Education Program

    SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER / SUSCRÍBASE A NUESTRO BOLETÍN:

    * indicates required