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There are as many reasons to be hopeful as there are to be skeptical that the recently announced peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC will bring the country’s longstanding armed conflict to an end.

Everyone has an opinion about whether conditions are now favorable enough to produce an enduring peace.   What is clear is that President Juan Manuel Santos has taken a huge risk in pursuing this course.  He may have decided to gamble because of a drop in public support and with an eye towards reelection in 2014.  But his motivation is less important than whether he and his government, and the nation, will succeed in tackling such an enormous challenge.

The main reason to believe that there is a reasonable chance of success is because, largely thanks to the “democratic security” policies put in place under President Uribe, the Colombian state is much stronger, and the FARC much weaker, than a dozen years ago during the last failed attempt to make peace.

Santos is wisely taking advantage of his predecessor’s success in improving security to give peace another try.   Fortunately, Colombia is not lacking experience on this subject.   The country has had notable accomplishments – under the Gaviria administration, for example – but has also seen its share of frustrations.  This time around government negotiators will have probably learned some lessons and will be more pragmatic and sophisticated.

Other developments that augur well are the Santos administration’s domestic agenda during its first two years – including the victims and land reparations measures – as well as positive changes in its foreign policy.  These have helped show goodwill and have produced a more propitious regional and international environment.

Yet, even the most optimistic observers wonder if the talks that start on October 8th in Oslo will be fruitful.  The FARC may be militarily weakened, but there is no guarantee they are ready to negotiate in good faith.  Their time frame may not be in “months,” which is President Santos’ idea, but rather in years.

It is encouraging that there are only five points that will be discussed in the negotiations.   But none of the items on the agenda is easy.   Rural development may be the most complicated since it is unclear what the FARC are prepared to accept regarding land reform.

The drug question will also be tricky.  There are some lessons to be learned from the demobilization of the paramilitary groups and the spread of criminal groups.  And it is always difficult to balance victims’ rights, which must be taken into account, with the importance of negotiating a peace agreement.

It is tempting to point to the obstacles in the process the Santos administration has started.   But polls show the Colombian public supports the peace effort.  It is a natural step for a country that has made so much progress in recent years.