Although other factors come into play, economic success is what has contributed most to Brazil’s rising global stature and influence in the past decade. Brazil now boasts the world’s sixth largest economy, a jump from tenth just half a dozen years ago. The country has shown strong, steady growth since 2004. Poverty and inequality have declined, and the country displays an increasingly vibrant middle class. Unlike the US and Europe, it has so far largely side-stepped the international financial crisis.

In recent months, however, Brazil’s economy has been slowing. Its growth slipped from 7.5 percent in 2009 to 2.5 percent in 2011, and may dip again this year, perhaps to less than 2 percent.

Economic analysts, both in Brazil and outside, are divided over how quickly Brazil will be able to stem the downward trend and recover its previous, more robust rate of expansion. Both pessimists and optimists agree that Brazil’s economy is better organized and run today than it has ever been in the past. They also agree that the financial system is fundamentally sound, and that the traditional trouble spots in the economy—inflation, debt, and persistent trade deficits—are today largely under control.

The pessimists, however, point out that the tail winds pushing Brazil’s expansion are losing force – as Chinese demand for commodities shrink and capital flows to all emerging markets diminish. They also emphasize that the long term challenges are even more difficult, correctly arguing that Brazil has failed to deal with a series of structural problems that could keep growth rates low far into the future. These include a deteriorated and outmoded infrastructure, a bloated, inefficient government bureaucracy, archaic tax and labor codes, an unfriendly environment for business, and a mostly mediocre education system.

For their part, the optimists do not dispute this litany of problems facing Brazil and recognize them as a serious drag on the country’s economy. But, they assert, Brazil succeeded in overcoming far worse difficulties in the past and, despite this multitude of deficiencies and handicaps, the economy and the country are well managed and resilient. Brazil has demonstrated time and again its capacity to deal with setbacks and reversals, to consistently renew itself, and move forward. My bet is with the optimists.