In anticipation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) stunning electoral win, Inter-American Dialogue President Michael Shifter discusses the challenges that have defined this historic election and the immediate issues that López Obrador will have to address in office. Shifter also compares and contrasts left-wing populist López Obrador with right-wing populist Donald Trump, pointing out that although they may share some stylistic characteristics, the former is an experienced politician with a proven track record of governing experience. Other topics discussed include trade, immigration, crime, and corruption.
Comments by Michael Shifter:
“There are some characteristics [shared between Trump and López Obrador], but there are also a lot of differences. López Obrador has been a politician his whole life; Donald Trump is not a politician. AMLO was the mayor of Mexico City, so he has governing experience and you can evaluate his record in public service and as a politician; Donald Trump was a real estate developer. But they both have a similar message in attacking the status quo, the establishment of political parties, and both are beneficiaries of the weakening of political parties both here in the United States and in Mexico.”
“[The corruption and criminality in Mexico today] are the two main factors according to many Mexicans [in López Obrador’s success]. The homicide rate has been going up and up and corruption is widespread in [the Peña Nieto] administration. The ruling party and the other political parties have also been discredited because they are associated with corruption and also not solving the problems [Mexico is facing]. Also the economy [is an issue]. When this government came into power they promised that with reforms, economic growth would increase, and that has not happened.”
“[Donald Trump] is not really an issue in this election. Clearly, it’s part of the environment and it plays in AMLO’s nationalist message by strengthening it, but Mexicans are basically worried about what’s happening in Mexico and that’s what they are voting on.”
“[The breakdown of the rule of law in this election] is really dramatic. Over 130 people have been killed – either candidates or other politicians. In the last election in 2012 there were only 9. So there has been a significant deterioration in the security situation, particularly at the local level where there is plenty of organized criminality, and those criminal groups are sending a strong message. Unfortunately, the candidates running for office in this cycle including López Obrador have not spelled out very strong proposals in order to address this problem. So it’s a big unknown what the [elected officials] are going to do about it.”
“I think that [the newly elected politicians] will not be able to make changes overnight, but they certainly will be able to make inroads. They can begin to attack the corruption issue, strengthen the judicial system, make police more professional, and raise their pay to reduce their susceptibility to bribes. But there has to be a commitment to make things different.”
