On October 30, the Mexico Program at the Inter-American Dialogue hosted a private roundtable discussion with non-resident senior fellow Pamela K. Starr, focused on Mexico’s evolving domestic and foreign policy under President Claudia Sheinbaum during her first year, and its implications for relations with the United States. The conversation offered an in-depth analysis of Sheinbaum’s first year in office, her policy priorities, and the outlook for Mexico–U.S. cooperation in critical areas such as trade, migration, and security.
In her remarks, Starr explained that President Sheinbaum has adopted a more pragmatic and business-friendly approach than her predecessor, while maintaining her commitment to the core principles of the “Fourth Transformation.” Sheinbaum recognizes that sustained economic growth and private investment are essential to funding Mexico’s expansive social programs. Her administration has introduced new energy regulations aimed at balancing state leadership with private participation, particularly in the electricity sector, signaling a willingness to increasingly collaborate with investors despite lingering regulatory uncertainty.
Regarding relations with the United States, Starr underscored Sheinbaum’s ability to engage constructively with Washington, highlighting her success in negotiating tariff exemptions and maintaining cooperation on bilateral priorities. Migration management has been a focal point of the conversation, with Mexico actively strengthening its border enforcement. The move, according to Starr, reflects not only U.S. pressure but also a broader domestic strategy. Beyond responding to Washington’s demands, the government has found an opportunity to address the growing role of human smuggling as a lucrative source of revenue for organized crime. In line with this dual approach, Sheinbaum has intensified operations against organized criminal networks—building on Mexico City’s earlier security gains—while also targeting corruption and fuel theft that have long eroded public finances.
Economically, Mexico has avoided recession but continues to face challenges arising from limited investment, a large fiscal deficit, and uncertainty surrounding recent judicial reforms. Sheinbaum has pledged not to increase tax rates, instead focusing on expanding tax collection through improved enforcement mechanisms, including the use of artificial intelligence to detect evasion and the pursuit of large corporate debts. However, recent reforms to the amparo system and judicial appointments have raised concerns regarding judicial independence and their potential effects on investor confidence.
Looking ahead, Starr identified the upcoming United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) review and potential trade tensions as major tests for the Sheinbaum administration. While President Donald Trump’s protectionist tendencies could create hurdles, Starr noted that his personal affinity for Sheinbaum and recognition of Mexico’s continued strategic importance to the U.S. economy could help mitigate major disruptions. Sheinbaum’s government remains intent on preserving Mexico’s competitive standing as one of the United States’ most significant trading partners.
The discussion also touched upon Mexico’s positioning on China, with participants observing that while segments of the ruling Morena party are sympathetic to deepening ties with Beijing, Sheinbaum recognizes the national security sensitivities such engagement presents for Washington. This pragmatic awareness, Starr suggested, may serve to reinforce cooperation between Mexico and the United States moving forward.
In closing, Starr reflected that uncertainty itself has become the world’s greatest tax—a cost borne especially heavily by the region. Both Mexico and the United States, she emphasized, have ample room to reduce this burden through sound domestic governance and a renewed commitment to strengthening bilateral trust and policy coordination.
This event was by invitation only.
