In a private breakfast hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue’s Brazil Program, senior fellow and chair of Ipsos Clifford Young engaged with U.S. congressional staff, business leaders, and members of the Brazil Program network to discuss Brazil’s 2026 elections.
Scheduled for October, the elections will mark a pivotal moment for the country. Voters will choose a president and vice president, renew the entire House of Representatives, elect two thirds of the Federal Senate, and select governors and state representatives across the country. The race unfolds after years of institutional strain, rapid political realignments, and entrenched polarization that now defines Brazil’s political landscape. The context is further shaped by the conviction and imprisonment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the reorganization of the Brazilian right, and ongoing uncertainty over who will ultimately challenge incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
According to Young, Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is best understood through a process of triangulation, combining context, fundamentals, and polling data to assess the dynamics at play. In terms of context, crime and corruption have emerged as the central issues shaping voter sentiment. While public security has long been part of Brazil’s political debate, Cliff noted that concerns over disorder appear especially salient in this electoral cycle, reinforcing the right and center right’s relative credibility on the topic.
Turning to fundamentals, President Lula’s approval ratings have remained steady, suggesting a meaningful structural base and a viable path to reelection. At the same time, his current level of support does not amount to a decisive or consolidated advantage, particularly in a polarized environment where antiestablishment sentiment remains strong. Finally, the polls provide a snapshot of where the electorate currently stands. At this stage, survey data point to a highly competitive second round scenario, with projections showing roughly a 45 percent chance of Lula prevailing against Flávio Bolsonaro in a head to head matchup. Still, there is considerable time before voters go to the polls, and key variables remain unsettled, including the identity of the candidate who will ultimately challenge Lula. Even so, the available indicators already suggest that Brazil is likely headed toward a closely contested race.
During the discussion, participants raised questions about some apparent tensions in Brazilian public opinion. One question addressed the seeming contradiction between strong support for a leader willing to “break the rules” to fix the country and, at the same time, widespread rejection of corruption. Young noted that many voters reconcile this by believing that a strong leader is necessary to confront what they perceive as a system that is fundamentally broken or rigged. Another question explored whether public perceptions of crime align with actual crime statistics. The response highlighted that while some crimes have declined over time in certain areas, visible conflicts involving organized crime and persistent insecurity continue to reinforce a broad perception that public safety remains one of the country’s most pressing challenges.
This conversation was part of Ground Truth: Elections 2026, the Dialogue’s yearlong project tracking electoral dynamics in Brazil and the United States. For ongoing analysis and updates on Brazil’s 2026 elections and related events, please contact Giulia Branco Spiess at gbrancospiess@thedialogue.org.
This event was by invitation only.
