Maybe it is a good thing that Latin America is not on the front burner in Washington. So far, (a lot more is to come) the region has not gotten much attention in the latest Wikileaks release. The last thing inter-American relations needs now is another blow to trust.
Of course, for US diplomacy, leadership and influence in the world the latest leaks are a setback. As if the Obama administration needed any other problems, now it has try and control the considerable damage, particularly in sensitive trouble spots like Afghanistan, Yemen and Pakistan.
It is not that what was revealed was so surprising (for example, we knew it was hard to get other countries to accept Guantanamo detainees), but that the potential of further leaks of classified information undermines trust and will make it more difficult for the US to pursue its foreign policy objectives. Other governments will now be more reluctant to share candid judgments with their US counterparts. That goes to the heart of diplomacy.
Curiously, while the overall effect in US relations with Latin America will be negative, on one controversial issue the leaked cables should help put to rest one conspiracy theory – that the US was involved in the June 2009 coup in Honduras, or that the State Department supported the de facto government. It is reassuring that the recent cable shows that US ambassador Hugo Llorens was sharply critical of the anti-constitutional act.
Another issue that could, at least indirectly, affect US relations with Latin America has to do with the reportedly widespread interest by a number of Middle Eastern countries that the US seriously consider engaging in military action against Iran. While the US and European positions on Iran are well-known, the cables have made it clear that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, other states in the neighborhood hold similarly tough positions and are worried about the nuclear intentions of Iranian Prime Minister Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The cables put US concerns about Iran and its role in Latin America in a more serious light. They will add force to the expected criticism by the new, Republican-controlled House of Representatives about Venezuela’s geopolitical alliance with Iran, and also Brazil’s more accommodating position on Iran’s nuclear program. For Washington, Latin America may not be a high priority–but Iran certainly is.
The latest Wikileaks release comes at a time when the United States is trying to come to grips with its declining influence in the world. This episode will not help matters.