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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

April 10, 2026

What Factors Are Driving Brazil’s Presidential Race?

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking to fend off a challenge this year from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (L-R), the son of his former opponent. // File Photos: Brazilian Gov’t via Flickr CC BY-ND 4.0, Agência Senado via Flickr CC BY 2.0.

Q

  • Brazilian opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son, has risen to draw even with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in recent opinion polls ahead of this October’s election. The development points to a competitive race, similar to the 2022 election, in which Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points. What is driving Flávio Bolsonaro’s rapid rise in the polls? What factors between now and the election will decide the outcome? What do these dynamics suggest about Brazil’s broader political landscape, including the prospects for polarization, the role of third-way candidates and the potential for shifts among key voter blocs?

A

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.
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board of advisors

Diego Arria
Director,
Columbus Group

Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
Corporate Vice President for Gov’t Relations,
Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s)

Peter Hakim
President Emeritus,
Inter-American Dialogue

Donna Hrinak
Director,
Adtalem Global Education

Jon E. Huenemann
Council Member,
GLG Inc.

James R. Jones
Chairman,
Monarch Global Strategies

Craig Kelly
Senior Director,
Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
Georgetown University

John Maisto
Director,
US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
Sovereigns, Fitch

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