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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

December 10, 2025

What Does a Chaotic Vote Count Mean for Honduras?

More than a week after the vote, Honduran presidential candidates Salvador Nasralla and National Party candidate Nasry Asfura are deadlocked. // File Photos: Taiwanese Gov’t via Wikimedia Commons CC BY 2.0; Kes47 via Wikimedia Commons CC BY 3.0.

Q

  • Honduras’ Nov. 30 presidential election remains too close to call, with electoral authorities yet to determine a winner as top candidates and current President Xiomara Castro allege irregularities and foreign interference. With 99.4 percent of preliminary votes counted as of Tuesday night, conservative National Party candidate Nasry Asfura has a narrow lead, with 40.52 percent of the vote, closely by Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, who has 39.48 percent. Rixi Moncada of the ruling left-wing Libre Party is in third place with 19.29 percent of the vote. What factors explain the close and contested result, and to what extent has U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Asfura affected the race? What will the protracted vote count and claims of election fraud and interference mean for the next president’s agenda and the incoming government’s stability? How are Honduras’ relationships with China and the United States likely to change under the next government?

A

Cecília Godoy, analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Economist Intelligence Unit: “Vote counting continues in Honduras, but the razor-thin presidential results that have the two right-wing candidates ahead reflect a decisive rejection of the ruling left-wing Libre party. Widespread anti-incumbent sentiment eroded support for Libre, but a divided right means that a decisive victory remains elusive for the next president. Nasry Asfura of the Partido Nacional (PN) holds a narrow lead over Salvador Nasralla of the Partido Liberal (PL). Asfura benefited from positioning himself as a candidate…”

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