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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

December 2, 2025

What Will Defeated Ballot Questions Mean for Ecuador?

Ecuadoreans last month rejected all four measures on a referendum ballot pushed by President Daniel Noboa. // File Photo: Ecuadorean Government via PDM 1.0.

Q

  • In a defeat for President Daniel Noboa, Ecuadoreans voted down all four measures that were presented in a Nov. 16 referendum pushed by Noboa’s government. The rejected measures would have allowed foreign military bases in Ecuador, started a process to draft a new constitution, eliminated state funding for political parties and reduced the size of the National Assembly. Why did voters reject all of the proposals? How might Ecuador’s approach to fighting domestic and transnational criminal groups change in response to the defeat of the ballot questions? What do the results mean for Noboa’s agenda moving forward, as well as the overall stability of his government?

A

Sebastián Hurtado, CEO & founder of PRóFITAS in Quito: “Barely six months after Noboa’s comfortable re-election, support for his referendum collapsed even in traditional strongholds, signaling broader dissatisfaction with the government rather than with the individual questions. The vote also exposed a sharp socioeconomic divide: Low-income areas rejected the proposals by margins of up to 70 percent, while higher-income districts tended to support them. Persistent crime—2025 is on track to become the deadliest year on record—and deteriorating public services, especially in health, contributed to voter pushback. For many, the referendum appeared untimely and disconnected from more urgent demands for security, service delivery and employment. The referendum result will not significantly change Ecuador’s approach to fighting criminal groups. With constitutional redesign off the table, the government will continue relying on…”

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