Mariano Machado, Americas principal analyst at Verisk Maplecroft: “The weight of the charges makes reversal improbable, leaving amnesty as Bolsonaro’s last escape hatch. His allies in the Centrão continue to push a House bill that would absolve all defendants in democracy-related cases since 2019— an unpopular initiative, but one they see as survival politics. Although Bolsonaro himself may be politically finished, Bolsonarismo is anything but. The center-right now faces a test: splinter under competing claims of loyalty or coalesce behind a successor capable of courting Bolsonaro’s base without his baggage. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who burnished his credentials with a pro-amnesty speech, has moved to the front of the pack. In turn, street politics remain volatile. Right-wing networks have shown organizational muscle in recent rallies and are planning more, while security services monitor pockets of sympathy within military police units. Brazil’s institutions have held, but pressure on the…”