Tara Hariharan, managing director of global macro research at NWI Management LP: “Mexico’s and Canada’s divergent tariff fates stem from differing rhetoric and retaliation vis-à-vis the United States. Thirty percent tariffs on Mexico have been delayed to late October; President Sheinbaum has been placatory, forgoing retaliatory tariffs, eliminating some non-tariff barriers and deploying border troops and boosting extradition and drug enforcement to address migration and fentanyl flows to the United States. However, Canada has been levied 35 percent as it swiftly counter-tariffed U.S. automobiles, steel and aluminum. Also, Prime Minister Carney has denounced U.S. tariffs, and Ontario’s premier even mulled curbing electricity supply to the United States. Note that 85 percent of trade with the United States for both countries remains tariff-free via exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods, although sectoral levies (on autos, steel, aluminum, energy and lumber) hold. Conciliation aside, Mexico may be more strategically…”