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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

August 12, 2025

What Does Uribe’s Sentencing Mean for Colombia?

Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was sentenced Aug. 1 to 12 years of house arrest after being convicted in a long-running case. He is appealing the conviction. // File Photo: Centro Democrático.

Q

  • Right-wing former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe on Aug. 1 was sentenced to 12 years of house arrest after being convicted of bribery and procedural fraud in a case that has lasted for 13 years. Prosecutors have accused Uribe of seeking to bribe a former paramilitary member to retract testimony that Uribe established and funded a paramilitary group in the 1990s during the country’s long internal armed conflict. Uribe has denied wrongdoing and links to paramilitary groups and is appealing the conviction. What will be the political effects of the conviction on candidates and coalitions ahead of next year’s presidential election? To what extent will the development affect public support for Uribe and his allies? How might the conviction affect Colombia’s foreign relations, including with the United States?

A

Theodore Kahn, senior analyst in the Global Risk Analysis team at Control Risks in Bogotá: “Uribe has long been a polarizing figure, and the verdict will further entrench views on the extremes of the spectrum. But its ultimate impact on the 2026 elections will likely be less than the initial political shockwaves suggest. Uribe is no longer the kingmaker on the right he once was, as evidenced by infighting in his Democratic Center party over the process for selecting a presidential candidate. Early signs suggest the right’s standard bearer will come from outside the party’s ranks, as was the case with Federico Gutiérrez in 2022. In addition, debates over the former president’s legacy are less salient for younger, urban voters who could very well swing the outcome. Nearly 20 percent of the 2026 electorate…”

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