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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

July 22, 2025

What Factors Explain Chile’s Cooling Inflation?

Chile saw a drop of 0.4 percent last month in consumer prices, the largest decline since late 2023. // File Photo: Rmcarvalhobsb via Adobe Stock.

Q

A

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, Latin America chief economist at S&P Global Ratings: “The process of disinflation in Chile continues, with headline inflation starting the year at 4.9 percent, and now slowing to 4.1 percent according to the latest consumer price index (CPI) print in June. Two main factors have been driving slower inflation over the last few months, both of which were evident in the June CPI report. The first one is related to food prices, which by nature are highly volatile, but have generally trended lower this year. The second driver of disinflation has been lower prices of imported goods, which have benefited from a modest appreciation of the Chilean peso, and we expect this to broadly remain the case the rest of the year due to global U.S. dollar weakness. We project inflation to continue heading lower, especially into 2026, when we see headline CPI approach 3 percent. Inflation expectations have also been declining and are now close to the central bank’s 3 percent target. Consistent with these dynamics, we expect the central bank to restart its monetary policy normalization cycle in the coming months. We project…”

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