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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

June 17, 2025

Will Ecuador Bring Back a Foreign Military Presence?

Ecuador’s National Assembly (pictured) approved a measure this month to ask voters whether to allow foreign nations to operate military bases in the country. // File Photo: Ecuadorean Government.

Q

  • Ecuador’s National Assembly on June 3 approved legislation to hold a referendum on an undetermined date for a constitutional reform that would allow the construction and operation of foreign military bases in Ecuadorean territory. President Daniel Noboa’s allies have lobbied for a U.S. military presence in the country in order to fight organized criminal groups, Reuters reported in March. How likely is the reform to be approved by voters in a referendum? How would a U.S. military presence in Ecuador change the country’s security situation as authorities fight rising gang and cartel activity? Could this reform eventually be used by a future Ecuadorean administration to welcome global powers that are hostile to U.S. interests?

A

Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow for foreign policy and director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at the Brookings Institution: ““Inspired by President Nayib Bukele’s suppression of violent crime in El Salvador, officially through an ultra-hardline security approach, Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa, too, has leaned heavily into militarization of the anti-crime response. His constitutional referendum to allow Ecuador to again host foreign military bases fits into his anti-crime posture and serves to curry favor with the Trump administration. If the referendum passes, Noboa will seek to rent a refurbished Manta base or another location to the United States. The United States would welcome a return to Ecuador and the strengthening of its intelligence and other military assets in the region. Noboa may even pitch…”

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