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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

April 29, 2025

Will the U.S.-China Trade War Be a Boon for Brazil’s Farmers?

Amid the U.S.-China trade war, Brazilian and Chinese officials met this month to discuss agricultural trade. A field of soybeans in Brazil is pictured. // File Photo: Imago/Wirestock Creators via Adobe Stock.

Q

A

David L. Ortega, professor and Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy at Michigan State University: “The ongoing trade war and escalating tariffs between the United States and China are driving a major realignment in global agricultural trade—one that increasingly favors Brazil and other Latin American exporters. As both countries impose steep, triple-digit tariffs that threaten to sever bilateral trade, China is accelerating efforts to diversify its agricultural supply chains, particularly for key commodities like soybeans. Since the 2018-2019 trade conflict, China has steadily deepened ties with alternative suppliers, easing its reliance on U.S. imports. Brazil has emerged as the primary beneficiary, though Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are also well-positioned to capitalize on China’s growing demand for grains and meat. During the previous trade war, Brazil significantly boosted its agricultural exports to China, stepping in to fill the gap left by U.S. producers. Today, China’s deepening engagement with…”

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