LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

April 18, 2025

Will Geopolitics Bring Opportunity for Brazilian Oil?

Shifting geopolitics, oil price volatility and membership in OPEC+ could affect Brazil’s ability to grow its oil and gas revenues. An oil platform in Guanabara Bay in Rio de Janeiro is pictured. // File Photo: sauloangelo via Adobe Stock.

Q

A

Marina Pera, analyst at Control Risks: “U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will generate slower global growth, higher inflation and commodity price volatility. This economic scenario will negatively affect Brazil, particularly considering most of its exports are commodities. However, shifting geopolitical dynamics may also present some opportunities for Brazil’s oil and gas sector. Countries (particularly emerging markets) will likely attempt to de-risk from the United States by looking for other markets to safeguard energy security, which will likely open some opportunities for Brazil’s oil and gas exports. Brazil’s membership in OPEC+ is illustrative of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s foreign policy model, which is centered around strengthening international dialogue and multilateralism. Membership…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Diego Arria
Director,
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Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
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J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
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Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s)

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Donna Hrinak
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James R. Jones
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Craig Kelly
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Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
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John Maisto
Director,
US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
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