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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

March 7, 2025

Why Is Ecuador Seeing an Escalating Rate of Homicides?

Ecuador recorded its highest monthly total of homicides in January. Police officers in Quito are pictured. // File Photo: Camille via Adobe Stock.

Q

  • Ecuador recorded 731 homicides in January, a 40 percent increase year-on-year and the highest number of monthly killings since officials began tracking them in 2010. President Daniel Noboa, who is running for re-election in Ecuador’s April 13 runoff vote, last month called for foreign military assistance in battling the network of organized criminal groups that operate in the country. What is behind Ecuador’s surging homicide rate? What economic and political factors are preventing Ecuador’s government from improving security? How might the persistence of organized criminal activity affect voting patterns—and electoral administration—in Ecuador’s presidential runoff?

A

Hernán Flom, senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Trinity College: “While Ecuador’s homicide rate decreased from 46.2 to 38.8 murders per 100,000 people in 2024, this was still the second most violent year in the country’s history. Ecuador’s rampant homicide rate is likely attributable to the same factors that caused the initial spike and have not been adequately addressed, as President Noboa’s response has centered on militarization and conventional punitive policies. The connections between Ecuador’s gangs and transnational organized crime and systemic failures in its criminal justice institutions—that is, the police, courts and prisons—are still present and unresolved. The country’s economic recession, heightened by its widespread droughts and subsequent blackouts, might have also reinforced the rise in violent crime. Furthermore, the government’s…”

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