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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

February 24, 2025

What Is Causing Brazil’s Stubborn Rate of Inflation?

Brazil’s central bank (pictured) last month increased its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point and is expected to hike the rate again by the same amount in March. // File Photo: Agência Brasil.

Q

A

Joel Korn, president of WKI Brasil and senior international partner at UPITE Consulting Services: “Inflationary pressures this year in Brazil are expected to last longer than anticipated at the end of last year, notwithstanding the central bank’s proactive monetary policy. The anticipated one percentage point Selic interest rate hike in January and an additional one percentage point increase in March will not be sufficient to curb inflation at the required pace, within an environment of a vulnerable fiscal policy, an ongoing significant surge in food prices, effects of potential currency devaluation, rising global trade protectionism, and political and economic uncertainties. Revised market expectations of inflation of 5.2 percent will exceed the 4.5 percent upper limit of the target inflationary band for the year. As such, the central bank is likely to raise the Selic interest rate an additional full percentage point in the third quarter, beyond the projected increase to 14.25 percent in March. Borrowing costs will reach…”

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