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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

July 31, 2023

Who Will Ecuador Choose as its Next President?

Ecuadoreans go to the polls Aug. 20 for snap presidential and legislative elections. The country’s presidential palace, the Carondelet Palace, is pictured. // File Photo: Taty2007 via Creative Commons.

Q

  • Ecuadoreans will head to the polls Aug. 20 in a snap election to choose their next president. Of the candidates registered, only three are polling at or above 10 percent, according to a July poll from Comunicaliza: Luisa González, a fiscal leftist and social conservative who enjoyed a long career in the public sector during the presidency of Rafael Correa; Yaku Pérez, an environmental activist whose green agenda could attract younger generations; and Otto Sonnenholzner, a former vice president who is running as a centrist option. Considering the highly polarized state of Ecuadorean society, what will the next leader have to do to bring unity to the country? How likely is the country to join the region’s turn to the left, and will the future president remain a close ally of U.S. President Joe Biden, as was the current president, Guillermo Lasso? What are possible security concerns around the election?

A

Will Freeman, fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations: “According to a nationally representative July poll by CEDATOS, a majority of Ecuadoreans don’t recognize the names of the presidential candidates on the ballot. Sixty percent are currently undecided on how they will vote. So there is still plenty of time for the race to change at the last minute, as was the case in Guatemala’s recent first-round vote and in Peru’s 2021 election. That said, I anticipate Luisa González will maintain the lead, given that Correísmo’s base is the largest and most disciplined. The runoff, however, will likely be more of an uphill battle for González and Correísmo. A sector of Ecaudorean society remains staunchly anti-Correísta, even after…”

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ABOUT THE LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.
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Diego Arria
Director,
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Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
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Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
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Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
J.P. Morgan

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Senior Director,
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Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
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John Maisto
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Nicolas Mariscal
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Thomas F. McLarty III
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Beatrice Rangel
Director,
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Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
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Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
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Shelly Shetty
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