Latin America Advisor 2022-11-11 – Inter-American Dialogue

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

November 11, 2022

What Do Changing Political Dynamics Mean for Maduro?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is becoming less isolated in the Western Hemisphere. Maduro is pictured Wednesday aboard his plane, returning to Venezuela from the COP27 climate conference in Egypt. // Photo: @NicolasMaduro via Twitter.

Q

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro faced a toughening of sanctions and rhetoric in recent years, particularly as right-wing governments were in power in Colombia, the United States and Brazil. But leftist governments are now in control in Bogotá and Washington, and soon will be in Brasília. Among the signs of closer ties, Gustavo Petro on Nov. 1 became the first Colombian president to meet with Maduro in six years. What do the changing political dynamics in the Western Hemisphere mean for Maduro, and what factors will be most consequential? How likely are other leftist governments in the hemisphere to be able to encourage Maduro to take steps toward democracy? What incentives would Maduro have for such steps?

A

Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue: “As if any further proof were needed, Maduro’s debut on the global stage at the COP27 conference, and his greetings of French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, signaled the international community’s move toward greater accommodation of Venezuela’s authoritarian regime. The rapprochement between Petro and Maduro and the shift from the hard-right Bolsonaro government to the incoming Lula administration is particularly significant. That left-leaning governments dominate South America’s political landscape risks further reducing regional pressure on Maduro to address the country’s profound human rights and humanitarian crises. But Latin America’s changing politics is at best a partial explanation of closer ties with Venezuela. The strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ and isolation that began in 2019 with tough economic sanctions was…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Gene Kuleta
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E. gkuleta@thedialogue.org

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Goette-Luciak
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Diego Arria
Director,
Columbus Group

Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
Corporate Vice President for Gov’t Relations,
Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s)

Peter Hakim
President Emeritus,
Inter-American Dialogue

Donna Hrinak
Director,
Adtalem Global Education

Jon E. Huenemann
Council Member,
GLG Inc.

James R. Jones
Chairman,
Monarch Global Strategies

Craig Kelly
Senior Director,
Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
Georgetown University

John Maisto
Director,
US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
Sovereigns, Fitch

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