Drausio Giacomelli, head of emerging market strategy and economics at Deutsche Bank: “Brazil’s growth surprises reflect multiple global developments and the sheer difficulty in forecasting any macro variable under such a volatile backdrop. The pandemic, political tensions, inclement weather, wildfires, surging commodity prices, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and upcoming elections have weighed heavily on confidence and overall uncertainty—two important inputs for consumers’ and investors’ decisions. Still, the importance of the commodities cycle was underestimated. Brazil is largely a cyclical economy, and despite the recent drop in export prices, commodities gave the economy a large boost in 2021 and have remained reasonably supportive in 2022. In addition to this large wealth transfer, consumers and businesses benefited from substantial domestic transfers and credit support as pandemic relief and fiscal stimuli will likely extend beyond this year. It is difficult to ascertain…”