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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

June 13, 2022

Will Guatemala Be Able To Sustain Its Economic Recovery?

Guatemala’s economy has been rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic. Guatemala City is pictured. // File Photo: United Nations Development Programme.

Q

A

Omar De la Torre, director and lead analyst for sovereign and international public finance at S&P Global Ratings: “Guatemala’s longstanding macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence are helping to enhance GDP growth dynamics. The economic rebound in 2021 was backed by an early reopening of the economy, unprecedented monetary and fiscal support, and resilient remittances. Amid challenging global conditions, an economic downturn and weaker labor market in the United States could impair Guatemala’s performance as about one-third of its exports go to the United States, and most remittances, which accounted for about 18 percent of GDP in 2021, come from there. Net FDI posted an extraordinary increase in 2021 (3.85 percent of GDP), owed to the acquisition of a domestic telecoms firm, which is considered as a one-off event. We expect FDI to return to around 0.9 percent of GDP in the next few years…”

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