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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

June 13, 2022

Do Recent Victories Make AMLO’s Party Unbeatable in ‘24?

The party of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and its allies emerged as big winners in last week’s state elections. // File Photo: Mexican Government.

Q

  • The Morena party of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and its allies won four of six opposition-controlled state governor’s offices—in Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Hidalgo and Tamaulipas—that were up for election on June 5. The opposition held on to power in Durango and Aguascalientes states. To what can Morena and its allies attribute their victory in the state elections, and what do the results mean for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his policies? What do the results mean for the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN)? What is the significance of the PRI roots of some of the incoming Morena governors and other prominent ruling-party politicians?

A

Amanda Mattingly, managing director at ACM Global Intelligence: “The Morena victories on June 5 demonstrate the political power of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his ruling party ahead of the next presidential contest. Winning four out of six states previously held by the opposition shows the strength of Morena, which now controls 22 out of 32 states, and the weakness of the opposition coalition. Morena’s victory can be attributed to AMLO himself and his popularity, as well as his popular social programs and cash transfers to the working class. Even though the Mexican economy has not yet recovered from the pandemic and AMLO has fallen short on several promises, including his anti-corruption agenda, his approval ratings remain high. According to a Buendía & Márquez poll last month, 53 percent of Mexicans are satisfied with AMLO. But what is really at stake is the 2024 presidential election, and results from…”

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