Manuel Orozco, director for sovereign and international public finance ratings at S&P Global: “Our BB-/Stable rating on Brazil incorporates moderately weak economic growth prospects over the coming two to three years, partially explained by the country’s weak institutional capacity to pass structural reforms. Even before recent events of volatility, S&P Global was expecting an economic slowdown, due to more restrictive financial conditions, withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and uncertainty regarding the election outcome. Higher commodity prices will boost Brazil’s exports. That said, the economy will continue to struggle with supply chain constraints, high energy prices, resulting in higher inflation (and for a longer period), and a tighter than previously expected monetary policy. Economic growth in 2022 is unlikely to exceed 0.5 percent. Adding to challenging economic conditions, Brazil’s next president will also need to address large fiscal deficits, which we expect to exceed 6 percent of GDP during 2022-2024 and net general government debt levels trending toward…”
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Grupo Marhnos
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Head of Latin American Economics, Citi
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IESA
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