LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

Energy ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

December 5, 2025

What Would ‘Peak Oil’ Mean for Latin America?

The International Energy Agency recently updated its forecast for peak global oil demand, moving the expected date to 2050. // File Photo: troy_williams via Flickr CC BY 2.0.

Q

A

Francisco J. Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy: “The new IEA CPS scenario—like the reference scenarios of OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and ExxonMobil—project oil demand to rise continuously, without reaching a peak until 2050. At this point, these scenarios seem more plausible than the aspirational IEA’s net-zero scenario, but there is a high degree of uncertainty. Latin America’s oil industry is poised to do quite well in the high demand scenarios. The U.S. shale revolution appears to be losing steam and there is limited investment in global exploration and development to compensate for natural decline rates; these factors point to supply shortfalls by the end of the decade. Still, regional production could rise from…”

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ABOUT THE Energy ADVISOR

A sister publication of the Inter-American Dialogue’s daily Latin America Advisor, the weekly Energy Advisor captures fresh analysis from business leaders and government officials on the most important developments in oil and gas, biofuels, the power sector, renewables, new technologies, and the policy debates shaping the future of energy in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. To subscribe or for more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Staff

Gene Kuleta
Editor
202.463.2920
gkuleta@thedialogue.org

Jack Quinn
Reporter

jquinn@thedialogue.org

Lori Rampani
Reporter

lrampani@thedialogue.org

board of advisors

Nigel Blackaby
Global Head, International Arbitration Group,
Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer

Jimena Blanco
Chief Analyst,
Verisk Maplecroft

María José Cortés
Head of ESG,
Atlas Renewable Energy

Jeffrey Davidow
Senior Counselor,
The Cohen Group

Analia Gonzalez
Leader, Arbitration & Litigation,
Laitn America, BakerHostetler

Jonathan C. Hamilton
Partner,
White & Case

Raul Herrera
Partner, Corporate &
Securities Practice,
Arnold & Porter

James R. Jones
Chairman,
Monarch Global Strategies

Jorge Kamine
Partner, Corporate &
Financial Services,
Willkie Farr & Gallagher

Craig A. Kelly
Senior Director,
Int’l Government Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Jeremy Martin
Director,
Energy Program,
Institute of the Americas

Larry Pascal
Chairman, Americas
Practice Group,
Haynes & Boone

R. Kirk Sherr
President,
Clearview Strategy Group

Daniela Stevens
Director,
Energy Transition and Climate Program,
Inter-American Dialogue

Doris Rodríguez
Partner,
Hunton Andrews Kurth

Alexandra Valderrama
Director,
International Government
Affairs, Chevron

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