Energy Advisor 2025-10-17 – Inter-American Dialogue

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

Energy ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

October 17, 2025

Can Pemex Finally Turn the Corner Under Sheinbaum?

Mexico’s Pemex saw its crude oil production decline in August, although refinery throughput increased on a yearly basis. // File Photo: Alex Borderline via Adobe Stock.

Q

Oil production from Mexican state-run company Pemex and its affiliates declined by 8 percent year-on-year in August to 1.78 million barrels per day, according to data the firm released on Sept. 25. Crude oil exports from Pemex—which is the most indebted oil firm in the world—declined by more than 30 percent year-on-year in August as domestic refineries boosted their output of petroleum products, Reuters reported. What factors best explain Pemex’s declining crude oil production? How has the company’s financial outlook changed under the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum? How big of a risk is Mexico’s reliance on imported petroleum products from the United States?

A

Lourdes Melgar, nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy and former Mexican deputy secretary for hydrocarbons: “On Aug. 5, Pemex unveiled its Strategic Plan 2025-2035, providing a road map to implement the 2024 constitutional energy reform and address the company’s dire economic outlook. During the summer, the government issued a $12 billion bond to renegotiate the national oil company’s debt, established a 250 billion-peso investment fund to finance strategic projects and pay suppliers, and adopted a reduced tax regime for Pemex. While Moody’s and Fitch upgraded Pemex’s rating, challenges remain for operations and financial sustainability. Mexico has the potential to produce three million barrels of oil per day, but the AMLO administration reversed the 2013 reform aimed at boosting oil production by attracting investment and expertise in geologically complex fields. These reservoirs require substantial investment…”

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ABOUT THE Energy ADVISOR

A sister publication of the Inter-American Dialogue’s daily Latin America Advisor, the weekly Energy Advisor captures fresh analysis from business leaders and government officials on the most important developments in oil and gas, biofuels, the power sector, renewables, new technologies, and the policy debates shaping the future of energy in the Western Hemisphere and beyond. To subscribe or for more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.