Raphael Portela, principal research analyst in corporate analysis at Wood Mackenzie: “The main story behind Pemex curtailing exports has always hinged on the improved processing capacity of its downstream portfolio. There are two drivers behind this potential reinvigoration: the construction of the brand-new Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco and the revamping of its six existing plants. Indeed, the government has postponed the Olmeca refinery start-up from July to December 2022, and a start-up further into 2023 is not out of the question. Though delays in project delivery could have contributed to the change in stance, market signals are likely driving most of the uptick in export volumes. High oil prices have tilted the profitability balance away from downstream players and toward upstream operators. Pemex’s move allows it to capture that transient crude barrel premium from the global market while outsourcing refining to more streamlined companies such as U.S. Gulf Coast refiners…”